Another Scene from the northern Nigeria violence

Another Scene - Not for Sensitive Viewers - Burnt Alive During the Recent Post Election Violence in Kaduna, a northern Nigerian State

Not for Sensitive Viewers - Man burnt Alive During the Post Election Violence in Kaduna, a northern Nigerian State

Another scene from the Post Election Violence. Shops and Business Premises of southerners torched

Scene from the Post Election Violence in Kaduna - a northern Nigerian State

Nigeria Consolidates on Electoral Democratic Gains as President Jonathan Gets Re-elected

Introduction

As the most populated black nation Nigeria continues to totter towards entrenching its democracy, indications emerging from the just concluded Presidential elections seem to suggest that Nigerians are finally resolved that free and fair elections have come to stay. On Saturday April 16 2011, the enthusiastic voters marched out in their numbers to elect a president that will govern the multi-ethnic state for the next four years. Reports from almost all the corners of the country indicate that at all levels; the electoral process was a major improvement on what transpired on April 9 2011 a week before. Voters started trickling out at about 07:30 hours to the voting centres. However, there was noticeable lacklustre attendance at the early hours, only for the voters to come out in their numbers around 11:00 hours. Most of the voters were of the opinion that they decided to come out late for accreditation having known that the INEC officials do not come on time. Interestingly, the INEC staff seemed more prepared than they have ever been.

The Candidates

The presidential election of April 16 2011 was always considered as a straight contest between the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan, and the Congress for Progressive Change’s (CPC) candidate, Rtd. General Muhammadu Buhari; this, notwithstanding the poor showing of Buhari’s CPC at the polls of April 9 2011. It will be recalled that the PDP won a clear majority of the declared seats at the Senate and House of Representatives, beating the CPC in states considered to be core CPC states. The Action Congress of Nigeria’s (ACN) presidential candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and the All Nigerian Peoples Party’s (ANPP) candidate, Mallam Ibrahim Shekaru were never considered as strong contenders in the race. However, the stranglehold of the southwest by the ACN motivated the attempt by Buhari’s CPC to merge with it in order to present a common candidate in the person of Buhari. This did not eventually see the light of the day, as the talks between the two parties reportedly broke down as a result of the parties’ uncompromising positions. With the failure of the merger talks, it left the southwest open for contest, giving the PDP the advantage. The PDP had also hoped that with the three major contenders being from the north, the votes coming from there will be shared amongst the different candidates, with the PDP equally benefiting. In fact, this played out in Kano state where out of the 2,745,451 votes cast, Buhari received 1,624,543, Jonathan 440666, Ribadu 42353 and Shekarau 526310. Interestingly, one would have expected that Mallam I. Shekarau should win in Kano state being the incumbent governor of the state.

Voting Pattern: Sectional Interests at Play?

From the results released by INEC, the voting pattern seems to take a north south divide. This does not in any way suggest that voters were guided only by sectional interests or religion, they are other factors. For instance, President Jonathan also won in some of the states in the geographical north. He also got more than 25% in a few other core northern states, suggesting also that he has a more national appeal, especially when viewed against the backdrop of the massive campaigns and mobilization his party engaged in prior to the elections. The general feeling amongst many though is that the voting pattern was influenced by sectional cleavages. It will be recalled that some northern elements in the ruling PDP had, during the PDP primaries, campaigned against the ambition of President Jonathan’s bid to contest the presidency on the ticket of the PDP, arguing that it was the turn of the north to produce the president; this on the assumption that PDP will continuously win the elections. The PDP according to them has a system of choosing its presidential candidate that is based on zoning; a kind of power shift between the north and the south. President Obasanjo, a southerner ruled for 8 years between 1999 and 2007. With late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s election in 2007, it was understood that him being a northerner, will occupy the position for 8 years. However, as a result of Yar’Adua’s untimely death on May 5 2010, Jonathan his deputy inherited the office. The northern argument was that Jonathan being from the south, should not contest, but allow a northerner to do so. He however did not accede to the pressure, and the north under the umbrella of Northern Peoples Liberation Forum (NPLF) headed by Alhaji Adamu Ciroma, an erstwhile Governor of the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN), chose Alhaji Abubakar Atiku as the consensus candidate for the north to go against Jonathan at the PDP’s presidential primaries election. Jonathan roundly defeated Atiku with most of the northern delegates voting for him, in what many considered as a very transparent process. It is against this background that expectations were high that Jonathan would have found a place in the hearts of northerners.

INEC and CONDUCT

There is an indication that INEC is improving its logistical prowess with each election. While many complained about the late arrival of INEC staff and materials during the NASS elections of April 9, with the presidential elections, accreditation and voting started on schedule. In fact, it was reported that in most voting centres, INEC staff arrived far before the voters started arriving. There was also an increase in the turnover of activities at the centres. While in the NASS elections it would have taken about 4 minutes to attend to a voter, in the presidential election, it took an average of 2 minutes to attend to a voter. This, therefore, quickened the process so that despite the large turnout of voters, voting and counting finished in record time in most centres. Furthermore, the tension that seemed to exist between the INEC staff and the electorates during the NASS elections was not overtly present during the presidential election. Different reasons account for this; one is the assumed familiar air that existed between the voters and the INEC staff, secondly, the electorates were more familiar with the ground rules, and thirdly, the innovation of some INEC staff helped in quickening the process, thereby dousing the frustration most electorates would have felt as a result of the scorching heat.

Security and Violence

The security during the presidential election could be described as tremendous. The involvement of all security agencies, especially the military, paramilitary, and the police were visible. The closure of Nigerian airspace and land borders was with the intention to secure the country during the election period, but also and more importantly, to keep at bay, the non Nigerians that border with Nigeria from coming into the country to participate in the voting. In the past, and even currently, there have been allegations of Chadians, Nigeriens, and Cameroonians being registered to vote as Nigerians. In fact, the Nigerian Immigration Service arrested some non Nigerians that attempted to register during the voter registration exercise. Notwithstanding the adequate security arrangement put in place, there were instances of security breach. For instance, in Jos, Plateau state where a young lady was reportedly killed by the security agents during a security breach.

On Transparency

There is a general impression by many, including international and domestic observers that the elections were more transparent, free and fair than the NAS elections. Despite this, allegations of ballot box stuffing exist. One is inclined to think that if indeed this happened, it would have been at rural areas where there were no cameras and election observers. As the days go by, Nigerians and the international community will get to know how transparent, free and fair the process was. In fact, the leadership of the CPC have already indicated their intention to challenge some of the results for what it described as ‘irregularities.’

Voter Turnout/Behaviour

The turnout of voters during the elections was very impressive. In most places, it tripled what it was during the NASS elections. Different reasons of course account for this; one is the stake attached to the office of the president. Since this is the highest office in the country, it is expected that many people would be interested in participating in his elections. Secondly, the popularity of those involved equally rubbed off on the turnout, not forgetting the level of campaigns the different parties involved in, and thirdly, the perceived nature of the transparent elections and the secured nature of the voting process. However, in the southwest of Nigeria, there was a noticeable lacklustre turnout by the electorates. For instance, in Lagos state that has a record registered number of voters – 6,084,415 – only about 25% of that number turned up for voting. It has been suggested by some that the southwest felt that it did not have any serious stake at the presidential election since none of its own was in serious contention for the seat. This, of course suggests an ethnic dimension to the elections.

Results and Outcome

President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan having secured 22,495,187 votes out of 38,209,978 valid votes cast and having also had 25% in 31 states was declared the winner by the Chairman of INEC and Chief Retuning Officer Prof Attahiru Jega at about 20:30 hours on Monday April 18 2011. There were protests by some party agents, notably by the CPC’s Alhaji Hadi Sirika that they would not sign the final result sheet since they have issues with the overall results. This did not in any way affect the declaration of the result and the winner. Hours before the declaration of the final result, violence erupted in some of the northern states notably Kaduna, Taraba, Kano, Nassarawa, and Niger. The violence was not unconnected with the presidential elections results when it was perceived that President Jonathan was winning. According to eye witnesses in Kaduna state, Churches and Mosques were burnt down in protest. The government in Kaduna immediately imposed a 24 hour curfew on the state instructing security agencies to take all necessary measures in bringing sanity to the state. The president has equally appealed to the people to shun violence, as it will mar the credibility of the elections.

This security challenge will be the first test in Jonathan’s new presidency as he needs to assure the north that his government will not discriminate against them, even though there is no cause for such fears as the northerners equally voted for him, and his deputy is from the north.

Jonathan’s Presidency

It is still too early to project on what a Jonathan presidency will be, however, we can be sure that since this is the first election he has won in his political career, he will be more firm and surefooted in his governance style, especially given the fact that he was given the mandate through a popular vote.

Okolo Ben Simon, PhD

Women lined up differently to vote in most parts of the northern states of Nigeria. It is a religious as well as a cultural thing