Nigeria Consolidates on Electoral Democratic Gains as President Jonathan Gets Re-elected

Introduction

As the most populated black nation Nigeria continues to totter towards entrenching its democracy, indications emerging from the just concluded Presidential elections seem to suggest that Nigerians are finally resolved that free and fair elections have come to stay. On Saturday April 16 2011, the enthusiastic voters marched out in their numbers to elect a president that will govern the multi-ethnic state for the next four years. Reports from almost all the corners of the country indicate that at all levels; the electoral process was a major improvement on what transpired on April 9 2011 a week before. Voters started trickling out at about 07:30 hours to the voting centres. However, there was noticeable lacklustre attendance at the early hours, only for the voters to come out in their numbers around 11:00 hours. Most of the voters were of the opinion that they decided to come out late for accreditation having known that the INEC officials do not come on time. Interestingly, the INEC staff seemed more prepared than they have ever been.

The Candidates

The presidential election of April 16 2011 was always considered as a straight contest between the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan, and the Congress for Progressive Change’s (CPC) candidate, Rtd. General Muhammadu Buhari; this, notwithstanding the poor showing of Buhari’s CPC at the polls of April 9 2011. It will be recalled that the PDP won a clear majority of the declared seats at the Senate and House of Representatives, beating the CPC in states considered to be core CPC states. The Action Congress of Nigeria’s (ACN) presidential candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and the All Nigerian Peoples Party’s (ANPP) candidate, Mallam Ibrahim Shekaru were never considered as strong contenders in the race. However, the stranglehold of the southwest by the ACN motivated the attempt by Buhari’s CPC to merge with it in order to present a common candidate in the person of Buhari. This did not eventually see the light of the day, as the talks between the two parties reportedly broke down as a result of the parties’ uncompromising positions. With the failure of the merger talks, it left the southwest open for contest, giving the PDP the advantage. The PDP had also hoped that with the three major contenders being from the north, the votes coming from there will be shared amongst the different candidates, with the PDP equally benefiting. In fact, this played out in Kano state where out of the 2,745,451 votes cast, Buhari received 1,624,543, Jonathan 440666, Ribadu 42353 and Shekarau 526310. Interestingly, one would have expected that Mallam I. Shekarau should win in Kano state being the incumbent governor of the state.

Voting Pattern: Sectional Interests at Play?

From the results released by INEC, the voting pattern seems to take a north south divide. This does not in any way suggest that voters were guided only by sectional interests or religion, they are other factors. For instance, President Jonathan also won in some of the states in the geographical north. He also got more than 25% in a few other core northern states, suggesting also that he has a more national appeal, especially when viewed against the backdrop of the massive campaigns and mobilization his party engaged in prior to the elections. The general feeling amongst many though is that the voting pattern was influenced by sectional cleavages. It will be recalled that some northern elements in the ruling PDP had, during the PDP primaries, campaigned against the ambition of President Jonathan’s bid to contest the presidency on the ticket of the PDP, arguing that it was the turn of the north to produce the president; this on the assumption that PDP will continuously win the elections. The PDP according to them has a system of choosing its presidential candidate that is based on zoning; a kind of power shift between the north and the south. President Obasanjo, a southerner ruled for 8 years between 1999 and 2007. With late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s election in 2007, it was understood that him being a northerner, will occupy the position for 8 years. However, as a result of Yar’Adua’s untimely death on May 5 2010, Jonathan his deputy inherited the office. The northern argument was that Jonathan being from the south, should not contest, but allow a northerner to do so. He however did not accede to the pressure, and the north under the umbrella of Northern Peoples Liberation Forum (NPLF) headed by Alhaji Adamu Ciroma, an erstwhile Governor of the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN), chose Alhaji Abubakar Atiku as the consensus candidate for the north to go against Jonathan at the PDP’s presidential primaries election. Jonathan roundly defeated Atiku with most of the northern delegates voting for him, in what many considered as a very transparent process. It is against this background that expectations were high that Jonathan would have found a place in the hearts of northerners.

INEC and CONDUCT

There is an indication that INEC is improving its logistical prowess with each election. While many complained about the late arrival of INEC staff and materials during the NASS elections of April 9, with the presidential elections, accreditation and voting started on schedule. In fact, it was reported that in most voting centres, INEC staff arrived far before the voters started arriving. There was also an increase in the turnover of activities at the centres. While in the NASS elections it would have taken about 4 minutes to attend to a voter, in the presidential election, it took an average of 2 minutes to attend to a voter. This, therefore, quickened the process so that despite the large turnout of voters, voting and counting finished in record time in most centres. Furthermore, the tension that seemed to exist between the INEC staff and the electorates during the NASS elections was not overtly present during the presidential election. Different reasons account for this; one is the assumed familiar air that existed between the voters and the INEC staff, secondly, the electorates were more familiar with the ground rules, and thirdly, the innovation of some INEC staff helped in quickening the process, thereby dousing the frustration most electorates would have felt as a result of the scorching heat.

Security and Violence

The security during the presidential election could be described as tremendous. The involvement of all security agencies, especially the military, paramilitary, and the police were visible. The closure of Nigerian airspace and land borders was with the intention to secure the country during the election period, but also and more importantly, to keep at bay, the non Nigerians that border with Nigeria from coming into the country to participate in the voting. In the past, and even currently, there have been allegations of Chadians, Nigeriens, and Cameroonians being registered to vote as Nigerians. In fact, the Nigerian Immigration Service arrested some non Nigerians that attempted to register during the voter registration exercise. Notwithstanding the adequate security arrangement put in place, there were instances of security breach. For instance, in Jos, Plateau state where a young lady was reportedly killed by the security agents during a security breach.

On Transparency

There is a general impression by many, including international and domestic observers that the elections were more transparent, free and fair than the NAS elections. Despite this, allegations of ballot box stuffing exist. One is inclined to think that if indeed this happened, it would have been at rural areas where there were no cameras and election observers. As the days go by, Nigerians and the international community will get to know how transparent, free and fair the process was. In fact, the leadership of the CPC have already indicated their intention to challenge some of the results for what it described as ‘irregularities.’

Voter Turnout/Behaviour

The turnout of voters during the elections was very impressive. In most places, it tripled what it was during the NASS elections. Different reasons of course account for this; one is the stake attached to the office of the president. Since this is the highest office in the country, it is expected that many people would be interested in participating in his elections. Secondly, the popularity of those involved equally rubbed off on the turnout, not forgetting the level of campaigns the different parties involved in, and thirdly, the perceived nature of the transparent elections and the secured nature of the voting process. However, in the southwest of Nigeria, there was a noticeable lacklustre turnout by the electorates. For instance, in Lagos state that has a record registered number of voters – 6,084,415 – only about 25% of that number turned up for voting. It has been suggested by some that the southwest felt that it did not have any serious stake at the presidential election since none of its own was in serious contention for the seat. This, of course suggests an ethnic dimension to the elections.

Results and Outcome

President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan having secured 22,495,187 votes out of 38,209,978 valid votes cast and having also had 25% in 31 states was declared the winner by the Chairman of INEC and Chief Retuning Officer Prof Attahiru Jega at about 20:30 hours on Monday April 18 2011. There were protests by some party agents, notably by the CPC’s Alhaji Hadi Sirika that they would not sign the final result sheet since they have issues with the overall results. This did not in any way affect the declaration of the result and the winner. Hours before the declaration of the final result, violence erupted in some of the northern states notably Kaduna, Taraba, Kano, Nassarawa, and Niger. The violence was not unconnected with the presidential elections results when it was perceived that President Jonathan was winning. According to eye witnesses in Kaduna state, Churches and Mosques were burnt down in protest. The government in Kaduna immediately imposed a 24 hour curfew on the state instructing security agencies to take all necessary measures in bringing sanity to the state. The president has equally appealed to the people to shun violence, as it will mar the credibility of the elections.

This security challenge will be the first test in Jonathan’s new presidency as he needs to assure the north that his government will not discriminate against them, even though there is no cause for such fears as the northerners equally voted for him, and his deputy is from the north.

Jonathan’s Presidency

It is still too early to project on what a Jonathan presidency will be, however, we can be sure that since this is the first election he has won in his political career, he will be more firm and surefooted in his governance style, especially given the fact that he was given the mandate through a popular vote.

Okolo Ben Simon, PhD

Women lined up differently to vote in most parts of the northern states of Nigeria. It is a religious as well as a cultural thing

Voters in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja defying the heat (about 40 degrees celsius) to elect their president

Voters in large numbers defying the scorching sun to vote for the candidate of their choice

Voters about to vote during the Presidetial elections. The sun was scorching but it seemed not matter to them

Early times: The INEC Ad Hoc Staff trying to sort out their files before the elections commenced

INEC Ad Hoc Staff (NYSC) seriously attending to their duties.

Presidential Elections in Nigeria, Saturday 16 April 2011: Voters sitting quietly waiting for INEC officials

The Big Test for President Jonathan

Introduction

At the onset of the Yar’Adua/Jonathan presidency in May 2007, the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, pledged to Nigerians and the international community that his government will reform the electoral process in the country, in order for more credible elections to be conducted. It will be recalled that the 2007 elections which threw up the duo was adjudged by both domestic and international observers as the worst election in Nigeria’s political history. The 2007 elections were characterized by massive vote rigging, ballot box snatching and violence. However, as a result of Yar’Adua’s untimely exit on May 5 2010, he could not see through his resolve. The lot to do that, therefore, fell on his erstwhile vice, now the incumbent, President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan.

The setting up of the Justice Mohammed Uwais Committee eventually paved way for a raft of reforms that is being witnessed in Nigeria’s Electoral Laws. As is usual in Nigeria, scepticism ruled the day especially in the early days of the Committee’s work. Many believed that the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) government is so insincere in its promise of instituting a credible electoral process in Nigeria. They point to the fact that the lawmakers, most of who benefited from the fraudulent elections, would not want the Electoral Reforms to see the light of the day. The initial delays associated with the acceptance of some of the core reform provisions seem to vindicate the stance of the sceptics. However, with the appointment of Prof. Attahiru Jega as the Chairman of the re-branded Independent National Election Commission (INEC), most Nigerians started buying into the sincerity of the government. This buy in is not unconnected with the view many have of Professor Jega. He is perceived as a very principled and courageous man who will not collude with the government party to truncate the will of the people. However, there were still doubts, mostly by the opposition parties of INEC’s ability to remain independent, especially since it is largely funded by the federal government.

Pass Mark for INEC?

The elections which were billed to start on Saturday April 2 2011 were to have been held over three weekends (April 2, 9, and 16). However, as a result of what INEC referred to as ‘logistical challenges’ it could not effectively start off on April 2; the vendors that were contracted by INEC for the printing of the election materials did not deliver on time. This eventually led to the cancellation/suspension of the elections which had already started in some voting centres. This action did not go down well with the populace, but Jega’s profuse apologies on Television, (the first of its kind by such highly placed government official) and the understanding of the public calmed the frayed nerves of Nigerians. It will be recalled that in 1993, the erstwhile military president, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) had publicly through the media cancelled the presidential elections even as the results already announced indicated that there was a clear winner of the polls. There were fears, therefore, that with the cancellation/suspension of the elections by Prof Jega, voter apathy, which the INEC, government, and a raft of Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) have been warring against would creep in once more. However, the resolve of the Nigerian electorates won over voter apathy.

At the conclusion of the rescheduled National Assembly (NASS) elections on Saturday April 9 2011 – note however that NASS elections were postponed in 15 Senatorial districts and 48 Federal constituencies to April 26 2011 – Nigerians and a host of international community especially the observers commended the improved nature of the polls. When viewed against the 2007 elections, the 2011 elections so far indicate that INEC has delivered. This has led to President Jonathan’s beating of his chest that he has delivered on the promise of a credible election he made to Nigerians. Not all would however agree to this assessment, especially at this stage. This is more so because reports of violence, ballot box snatching, voter intimidation, rigging and other forms of electoral fraud trail the just concluded NASS elections. For instance, the INEC Returning Officer in Anambra Central Senatorial District, Dr Alex Anene, alleged publicly that the agents of one of the candidates for the Senatorial positions vying under the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) tried to induce him through the offer of 10 Million Naira (about $65,000.00), a 4x4 vehicle, a duplex, and scholarship for his kids to declare the election results in their favour. Well meaning Nigerians and the international community have called on INEC to improve on its gains. There is no doubt that there is room for improvement. INEC also must move from the level of rhetoric, to making sure that those that violated electoral laws are prosecuted. That way, it would be sending signals to all that it is definitely different from the former INEC.

The April 16 Test

Flowing from the above, the general expectation is that the Apil 16 elections will be generally free, fair and transparent. However, there are fears by some that since the stakes of the April 16 elections are higher, the elections might not be as free and fair as the NASS elections. Secondly, the results from the NASS elections indicate that the ruling party has lost some ground in the legislative house and this; they will want to cover if it must retain power at the centre. Akin to the above is the renewed hope by the opposition parties that it can dislodge the ruling party from the presidency. This renewed hope is premised on the gains that the opposition parties have made so far. For instance, out of the 86 election results released for the Senate, the opposition parties have a total of 26 seats, with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) leading the camp with 13 votes. The PDP however, still maintains the lead with 60 seats in its favour. While many, especially in the north had expected a good showing for Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), it managed to get 6 out of the 84 declared seats.

With the renewed hope of the opposition that it can dislodge the incumbent president, there were reports of serious political horse-trading going on; at one level, the CPC is reported to have been in close talk with the ACN chieftains, to solicit for their support. Interestingly, with the current position of parties, ACN is ranked higher in terms of number of seats at the Senate and should be seen as the stronger party. However, in terms of the personality profile of their different presidential flag bearers, CPC’s Buhari is ranked higher than ACN’s Mallam Nuhu Ribadu; little wonder then reports from many quarters were awash with the news that Ribadu would step down for Buhari in a possible CPC/ACN merger. As at the time of writing however, the media reported that the talks failed, and the ACN through the media communicated to its supporters that it was not in any kind of alliance with the CPC. Were the merger/support for CPC’s Buhari to take place, one expects that the ACN controlled Senatorial districts will vote for the CPC. However, the critical question is whether the combined forces of the CPC and ACN will be able to dislodge the PDP. No doubt, the ACN controlled southwest geopolitical zone has the population that can greatly influence the outcome of the elections (about 15 million registered voters); however, as pointed out by a colleague that the PDP is maintaining a close second in almost all the ACN controlled states, and hence, should be able to acquit itself favourably in the presidential elections.

Going by the total number of Senatorial seats already won by the PDP – 60 (at the time of writing), one can project that out of the remaining senatorial seats to be contested for, the PDP would likely win about 9 seats. It is expected, therefore, that the PDP will continue to dominate the Senate comfortably, even if it is not with a wide margin. Furthermore, the voting trend witnessed in the just concluded NASS elections suggests that the PDP has a much better national outlook and spread than the two main contending oppositions. For instance, the strength of the ACN is majorly in the southwest though it is making inroads in other non western states, while the CPC is mainly situated in the north and largely anchored around the person of Buhari.

The question that many have at the back of their minds is the extent to which religion and ethnicity will play a role in the determinant of who becomes the next president. It would be recalled that some northern elements in the PDP had earlier argued that Jonathan does not have the moral right to contest for the presidency, at least under PDP, because the PDP had earlier zoned the presidency to the north. Their argument was that Jonathan was serving out the remainder of the northern tenure held by late President Yar’Adua, and that the north would want to present a candidate for the second term elections – 2011. Jonathan however did not buy the argument and went on to mobilize and eventually clinch the PDP ticket. In order to placate the north, Jonathan chose Arc Namadi Sambo, the former governor of Kaduna state as his Vice President and eventual running mate. Sambo, who is from the northwest, is also a Moslem. With that master stroke, Jonathan was able to neutralise the fear of marginalisation of the northerners/Muslims, or so it seemed. The CPC’s presidential candidate is a Moslem from northwest, and his running mate is a Christian from the southwest, while the ACN presidential candidate is a Moslem from northeast, and his running mate is a Moslem from southwest. In fact, the influence of religion and ethnicity in the polity of Nigeria is so pronounced that the ACN candidate had to explain why he chose a fellow Moslem as his running mate. Notwithstanding the above, the elections will not be won along ethnic/religious lines. This is not to dismiss the overwhelming influence of ethnicity/religion in Nigeria’s geopolitical affairs. In fact, many are pointing to the regional nature of the power base of the CPC – northwest and the ACN – southwest to suggest that ethnic alliances were factors in the last NASS elections.

So, if religion and ethnicity are not key determinants, what will? Do political party ideologies play any significant role in determining who wins elections in Nigeria? Nigerians are quick to dismiss this as they are of the view that the political parties are not ideologically based. They insist that the parties are all the same, just different set of actors. In fact, most electorates have not even heard of any Political Party promoting any set of ideology. However, one will argue that the Nigerian voter, especially the elite is very discerning these days. This is informed by the nature of the campaign mounted by the presidential candidates. No longer did candidates rely only on the traditional political rallies held in state capitals, but they made extensive use of the media and the various electronic and digital communication modes in existence. For instance, it was not unusual for potential voters to get series of sms’ during the course of the day from different parties, all wooing for the voters support. Furthermore, the use of social network sites, especially the Facebook was canvassed by many of the parties especially those purporting to support them. It is evident however that the PDP presidential candidate, President Jonathan has more Facebook presence as at least over 100 different support groups exist on his behalf. Notwithstanding this mammoth presence on the internet, it must be cautioned that most of those that maintain such internet support groups might not eventually participate in the actual voting exercise, though they could still have influenced some people to vote in favour of the candidate they support. Akin to the Facebook phenomena is the Diaspora factor. A lot of Diaspora organizations weighed in for this campaign; again, PDP’s Jonathan got a majority of the Diaspora’s support. Another trend witnessed in the campaign is the extensive use of the youth population. Unlike in the past where the youths were engaged as thugs, this time around, the presidential candidates to a greater extent engaged the youth constructively. This, it is also argued will influence the way the votes will go in the forthcoming presidential polls.

Conclusion

From the above facts and analysis, one is left with the only logical conclusion to suggest that President Goodluck Jonathan will come out tops at the April 16 presidential elections. What would a President Jonathan’s presidency portend for Nigeria and Africa? Will he continue to maintain a dovish approach to internal issues, especially as it affects his Niger Delta and the issue of resource control and environmental degradation? Or would he operate from a hawkish perspective? Would it be business as usual or will he bring the much needed transformation that the Nigerian populace yearns for? What about Nigeria’s role in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) – will Nigeria continue to play the role of big brother in its sphere of influence and continue with its avowed role in continental peace and security issues? These are issues of concern to both Nigerians and the International community as Nigeria prepares to elect its third civilian president in its current political dispensation since 1999.

Okolo Ben Simon, PhD

17th Anniversary of the Rwandan Genocide

We at the Centre for Human Security, Peace and Sustainable Development wish to commemorate with the people of Rwanda, the 17^th Anniversary of the Rwandan Genocide. Our prayers are with the country and the people. We also congratulate the country on its efforts to at achieving sustainable peace in the post genocide state.

Nigerian Voters on Election day

Voters about to Exercise their Rights During the just Concluded National Assembly Elections in Nigeria

Voter Apathy Symbolizes the Rescheduled National Assembly Elections

Introduction

Nigeria continues to move towards its avowed democratic path. On Saturday April 9 2011, the rescheduled National Assembly (NASS) elections were held in many of the states in the country. It will be recalled that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had earlier scheduled that the National Assembly elections would hold on April 2 2011, the Presidential election on April 9 2011, while the Gubernatorial and State House of Assemblies would hold on April 16 2011. However, as a result of logistical challenges, INEC could not deliver on the dates. This, therefore, led to the cancellation/rescheduling of the NASS elections to April 9 2011, and the rescheduling of the Presidential, Gubernatorial and House of Assemblies to April 16 and 26 respectively. Despite this extension, INEC could still not deliver in some states.

On Saturday April 7 2011, it, through its Chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega announced the postponement of NASS elections in 26 states of Nigeria. By that announcement, there were no elections in 15 Senatorial districts and 48 Federal constituencies.  The elections of the affected units will be held on April 26 together with the Gubernatorial and the House of Assemblies.

On INEC’s Conduct

Generally, especially when viewed against the botched elections of April 2 2011 and against previous elections held in Nigeria, the April 9 2011 elections were well conducted. On the face of it, it equally looked more transparent. However, there are still hiccups noticed in the conduct of the elections. For instance, in many polling stations, the INEC officials did not arrive on time. The average time of arrival of electoral officers in most polling stations was 10:00 hours. Despite this, voters were patiently waiting for the process to start. Secondly, the INEC Ad Hoc staff, which was made up mainly of National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members were not adequately trained, as most of them were not acting uniformly. The Ad Hoc staff however exhibited signs that they were purposeful and fully in control of the process. Where voters tried to intimidate them, the staff stood their ground.

On Voters Conduct

There were fears that majority of the people that filed out to vote on April 2 2011 would not turn up for scheduled election. This fear was based on a number of factors. Firstly, the voter apathy that always characterized Nigerian elections in the past. Secondly, the lingering anger at INEC’s flop on April 2 2011. And lastly, the fact that some people had travelled back to their various locations after last week’s attempt and are still smarting from the non election. This group of people must have felt that it was a waste of funds to repeat the trip to vote.

At about 09:00 hours, most of the voting stations had few potential voters milling around. However, immediately the INEC staff arrived in most polling stations, the electorates started arriving. In some polling stations, the number of accredited voters was more than the number accredited for the botched April 2 voting. However, the average percentage of the number of accredited voters would not be up to 40% of the registered voters. People have suggested that the general low turnout of voters for the NASS elections is not unconnected to the fact that most of the candidates are not known by the electorates. This, therefore, suggests that the electorates are now looking beyond party affiliations to vote.

The electorates were generally orderly and clam throughout the exercise, though there are reported incidences of violence in some places, but it was not widespread. The enthusiasm that characterized the April 2 botched elections were however lacking.

On Security

There were heavy presence of the Military, Police and Para military officers throughout most of the states. It should be remembered that there was a restriction of movement of persons in the states. The idea behind this is to check the movement of political thugs and arms that has always characterized elections in the past. Irrespective of the restriction on movement, there were reports of violence and ballot box snatching in some parts of the states and the country. However, such situations were not as widespread as they used to be in the past. There were reported cases of bomb explosions at INEC office in Suleja, a neighbouring town of Abuja, and at INEC’s collation in Maiduguri, Borno state.

Transparency

On the face it, the elections seem transparent. The numbers of votes were not more than the accredited voters. The sorting and counting of votes were done in the open, and election results announced at the polling stations. The results were later displayed for all to see after the party agents had signed and acknowledged the results as authentic. However, the very sceptic Nigerian still believes that there could have been manipulations. There were also reported cases of money for votes. This has always characterized Nigerian democratic settings. In fact, many electorates were seeking out the party officials to trade their votes for money. There was evidence of underage voting especially in the northern part of Nigeria. This, INEC has to check in order to maintain its credibility.

Early Results and what it Portends

Results have started trickling in and many Nigerians are already excited about the timeliness of INEC’s collation efforts. The elections results indicate that the NASS will be a mixed bag of parties. The almost strong showing of parties that were in opposition indicates that the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) might not have an outright majority in the NASS. It equally means that if the president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan were to be returned as the president of the country, he will have a harder time with the NASS than it was earlier. Secondly, and most importantly, there are fears by the PDP, especially at the Jonathan's camp on whether the president will secure the outright majority that will guarantee his re-elections without going for a run-off. The fears are that with the strong showing of General Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the north of the country, and the strong showing of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the south west, President Goodluck Jonathan’s PDP might not muster enough votes to secure an outright win. If such were to happen, then the much talked about merger between the CPC and ACN might take effect to dislodge President Goodluck Jonathan. Secondly, it is the view of many that were the elections to go into a runoff, majority of the northern states would vote along ethnic lines, thereby favouring General Muhammdu Buhari’s CPC.

Conclusion

Gradually, Nigeria is making the right turn in its march to transparent elections. It is the view of many that despite the faltering steps taken by Prof Jega’s INEC, with patience and encouragement, Nigeria’s democracy will take roots. Credit must also go to the Nigerian civilian population that are the force behind this new turn.

 Okolo Ben Simon, PhD

Nigeria’s Elections Starts off on Shaky Note

Introduction

The much anticipated Nigeria’s 2011 elections which were billed to start with the elections into the National Assembly consisting of the Senate and House of Representatives, started off on a shaky note on Saturday, April 2 2011. According to the Independent Electoral Commission’s (INEC) timetable, the election was scheduled to start off by 08:00hrs with the accreditation of voters. This was to continue up till 12:00 noon, after which voting was supposed to commence. However, in some polling stations across the country, election materials arrived between 10:00 and 11:00hrs (with Result Sheets missing from the raft of materials that were delivered). In most other polling stations however, election materials never arrived even at about 13:00hrs. In those polling stations that got election materials, voting started off around 12:30hr, as a result of what INEC referred to as ‘Logistic Challenges’. The Chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega announced the postponement of the election to Monday, April 4 2011.

Reactions followed the news of the postponement. For instance, in majority of the centres in Enugu, the capital of Enugu state, voters expressed disgust with INEC’s shoddy arrangement. They blamed Jega personally for his inability to prepare very well for the election. Most of the people were incensed that after Jega had been given almost 95 billion Naira for the conduct of the election, he has ‘failed’ to deliver.

Context

It is necessary to provide some context in order to understand the peoples’ frustration against Jega’s INEC. The 2011 election is the 9^th election that will hold in Nigeria starting from the 1959 independence election. From that election to the last election in 2007, Nigeria’s electoral history has been marred by electoral fraud and extreme violence, with the succeeding one worse than the earlier one by both domestic and international observers. In Nigeria’s electoral history, the 2007 election was adjudged as the worst. Late President Umaru Musa Yar ‘Adua acknowledged very early in his presidency the flawed nature of the election that brought him to power. He promised Nigerians of conducting credible elections in subsequent ones, and in fulfilling the promise, set up a Committee to reform the electoral laws of the country. The Committee, tagged ‘the Uwais Committee’, so named after its chairman Justice Mohammed Uwais, came up with an electoral reform report. It was against this backdrop that the current Electoral Laws that Nigeria adopted rests.

The appointment of Jega gave hope to Nigerians that the Jonathan led government was ready to hearken to the yearnings of Nigerians; a credible election. This hope and believe on Jega’s ability to deliver is not unconnected with his antecedent as a University Professor and an erstwhile president of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU). Many perceive Jega as‘no nonsense’ and a very principled man. His appointment, therefore, could be seen as one of the reasons why Nigerians who had hitherto lost hope in the electoral process, revived that hope. Jega immediately swung into action through a massive media campaign promising Nigerians of a credible election if he and his INEC are well funded. His first and immediate task was to call for a total jettisoning of the erstwhile voters’ register which he said was not credible enough, as names like Michael Jackson, Mike Tyson, Dolly Parton, and such strange names were on the register. It must be remembered that it was another Professor, Maurice Iwu who presided over the 2007 election where the register was used. Jega’s action, therefore, resonated well with the people. However, Nigerians were shocked when Jega demanded a whooping 89 billion Naira for INEC to deliver a credible election. This was of course given to him. His inadequacies or INEC’s inadequacies was however revealed when, during the initial registration period, INEC faltered. Nigerians started questioning Jega’s capability to deliver on his promises. His subsequent request for an additional 6 billion naira raised eyebrows amongst many INEC observers.

However, after the initial tottering, INEC was able to conclude the registration of voters capturing about 73 million voters, 3 million more than what INEC estimated. There have however been doubts as to the authenticity of the number of registered voters as released by INEC. It is, therefore, against this backdrop of hopes and great expectations that Nigerians marched out to vote for the National Assembly candidates on April 2 2011.

With the postponement of the election, Nigerians are once again expressing doubts as to whether INEC is ready to conduct the election in the place. Voters across the different states of the federation expressed their angst and frustration over the act. To most of them, it is a ploy to rig the election by the Jega led INEC in favour of the ruling party since it is perceived that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led government is funding INEC.

On Violence

Generally, the initial conduct of the potential voters was very orderly irrespective of the late arrival of INEC’s staff. In most polling stations for instance, the electorates organised and wrote down their names according to how they arrived. This was done in order to forestall confusion, pushing and shoving that normally characterize such activities where there is a crowd. Even with the late arrival of electoral officers and materials in some places, the electorates were not antagonistic to the officers, as they would have been. They showed understanding, possibly because most of the electoral officers were National Youth Corp members. However, with the eventual announcement of the postponement of the election, most people expressed disgust with Jega, calling for his resignation. That notwithstanding, some electorates praised Jega’s courage to take the bull by the horn in cancelling the election when he realised that the all important Result Sheet was still not available as at the time of voting, and that even the other election materials were yet to be delivered to most polling stations. Most electorates that are from private business background were concerned over the income they lost on April 2 and the anticipated loss of income on Monday 4 April resulting from the rescheduling. Civil servants were however joyous, as the postponement will afford them another opportunity of a work free day. Notwithstanding the non violent posturing of the day, there were isolated cases of reported violence in a few places in Enugu and Anambra states. However, they were not linked to the postponement of the election.

On Security

There was a good presence of security operatives at almost all the polling stations. Uniformed security agents were very visible and they acted and conducted themselves in an orderly and non-intimidating manner. They were equally courteous to the electorates. In most polling stations, the police were amongst the first to arrive. The Immigration officers and the Civil Defence Corps were equally very visible. The absence of the military was a welcomed relief to many as they expressed such to this author.

There was also an indication that the electorates were also ready to ‘defend’ their votes. Despite the confusing signals from the National Security Adviser (NSA) that voters should not hang around the polling stations after voting, many of the voters preferred to act according to INEC’s earlier advise that voters can stay around after voting until counting in order to ‘protect’ their votes.

Turnout of Voters

There is an indication that not many people who registered went out to vote as many registered for different reasons. For instance, some registered because they were of the opinion that time might come when the government will use voter’s card as a prerequisite for accessing government care. Others registered as a result of the threats by their Ecclesiastical Superiors that non registration will lead to the denial of one of the most important sacraments in the Catholic church; Holy Communion. Others also registered in order to satisfy the urging of their traditional rulers. The above notwithstanding, a large number of people came out to vote and they were very determined that they will cast their ballot. However, the effect of the postponement on this and subsequent ones is that people might be very reluctant to go out to vote again, as some potential electorates are already counting the financial cost of not working on April 2 2011.

Conclusion

Overall however, there is a yearning by Nigerians that they want a transparent electoral process and thus are ready to participate in electing the leaders. The days of voter apathy seem to be a thing of the past. Notwithstanding the above, the National Assembly elections and the subsequent ones in 2011 will determine the extent to which the electorates can trust the Nigerian government on electoral issues. Furthermore, the political class seem to have realised the importance of electorates in the electoral process. The level of campaign they engaged in subsequent to the election has never been witnessed in Nigeria. Some of them did not just use the traditional campaign model, but also made use of the media social networks and the short message service (sms) bulk message facilities offered by communication companies. That, to an extent, reduced the violence that is normally associated with campaigns. Secondly, Nigerians are becoming more aware that violence is not the way to garner votes, but by campaigns and appeal. There is, therefore, no doubt that though Nigeria’s much anticipated 2011 elections started off on a shaky note, the Jega led INEC would work hard to correct the wrong impression already sent to Nigerians by the non-conduct of April 2 2011 elections.

Okolo Ben Simon, PhD