Introduction
Nigeria continues to move towards its avowed democratic path. On Saturday April 9 2011, the rescheduled National Assembly (NASS) elections were held in many of the states in the country. It will be recalled that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had earlier scheduled that the National Assembly elections would hold on April 2 2011, the Presidential election on April 9 2011, while the Gubernatorial and State House of Assemblies would hold on April 16 2011. However, as a result of logistical challenges, INEC could not deliver on the dates. This, therefore, led to the cancellation/rescheduling of the NASS elections to April 9 2011, and the rescheduling of the Presidential, Gubernatorial and House of Assemblies to April 16 and 26 respectively. Despite this extension, INEC could still not deliver in some states.
On Saturday April 7 2011, it, through its Chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega announced the postponement of NASS elections in 26 states of Nigeria. By that announcement, there were no elections in 15 Senatorial districts and 48 Federal constituencies. The elections of the affected units will be held on April 26 together with the Gubernatorial and the House of Assemblies.
On INEC’s Conduct
Generally, especially when viewed against the botched elections of April 2 2011 and against previous elections held in Nigeria, the April 9 2011 elections were well conducted. On the face of it, it equally looked more transparent. However, there are still hiccups noticed in the conduct of the elections. For instance, in many polling stations, the INEC officials did not arrive on time. The average time of arrival of electoral officers in most polling stations was 10:00 hours. Despite this, voters were patiently waiting for the process to start. Secondly, the INEC Ad Hoc staff, which was made up mainly of National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members were not adequately trained, as most of them were not acting uniformly. The Ad Hoc staff however exhibited signs that they were purposeful and fully in control of the process. Where voters tried to intimidate them, the staff stood their ground.
On Voters Conduct
There were fears that majority of the people that filed out to vote on April 2 2011 would not turn up for scheduled election. This fear was based on a number of factors. Firstly, the voter apathy that always characterized Nigerian elections in the past. Secondly, the lingering anger at INEC’s flop on April 2 2011. And lastly, the fact that some people had travelled back to their various locations after last week’s attempt and are still smarting from the non election. This group of people must have felt that it was a waste of funds to repeat the trip to vote.
At about 09:00 hours, most of the voting stations had few potential voters milling around. However, immediately the INEC staff arrived in most polling stations, the electorates started arriving. In some polling stations, the number of accredited voters was more than the number accredited for the botched April 2 voting. However, the average percentage of the number of accredited voters would not be up to 40% of the registered voters. People have suggested that the general low turnout of voters for the NASS elections is not unconnected to the fact that most of the candidates are not known by the electorates. This, therefore, suggests that the electorates are now looking beyond party affiliations to vote.
The electorates were generally orderly and clam throughout the exercise, though there are reported incidences of violence in some places, but it was not widespread. The enthusiasm that characterized the April 2 botched elections were however lacking.
On Security
There were heavy presence of the Military, Police and Para military officers throughout most of the states. It should be remembered that there was a restriction of movement of persons in the states. The idea behind this is to check the movement of political thugs and arms that has always characterized elections in the past. Irrespective of the restriction on movement, there were reports of violence and ballot box snatching in some parts of the states and the country. However, such situations were not as widespread as they used to be in the past. There were reported cases of bomb explosions at INEC office in Suleja, a neighbouring town of Abuja, and at INEC’s collation in Maiduguri, Borno state.
Transparency
On the face it, the elections seem transparent. The numbers of votes were not more than the accredited voters. The sorting and counting of votes were done in the open, and election results announced at the polling stations. The results were later displayed for all to see after the party agents had signed and acknowledged the results as authentic. However, the very sceptic Nigerian still believes that there could have been manipulations. There were also reported cases of money for votes. This has always characterized Nigerian democratic settings. In fact, many electorates were seeking out the party officials to trade their votes for money. There was evidence of underage voting especially in the northern part of Nigeria. This, INEC has to check in order to maintain its credibility.
Early Results and what it Portends
Results have started trickling in and many Nigerians are already excited about the timeliness of INEC’s collation efforts. The elections results indicate that the NASS will be a mixed bag of parties. The almost strong showing of parties that were in opposition indicates that the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) might not have an outright majority in the NASS. It equally means that if the president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan were to be returned as the president of the country, he will have a harder time with the NASS than it was earlier. Secondly, and most importantly, there are fears by the PDP, especially at the Jonathan's camp on whether the president will secure the outright majority that will guarantee his re-elections without going for a run-off. The fears are that with the strong showing of General Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the north of the country, and the strong showing of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the south west, President Goodluck Jonathan’s PDP might not muster enough votes to secure an outright win. If such were to happen, then the much talked about merger between the CPC and ACN might take effect to dislodge President Goodluck Jonathan. Secondly, it is the view of many that were the elections to go into a runoff, majority of the northern states would vote along ethnic lines, thereby favouring General Muhammdu Buhari’s CPC.
Conclusion
Gradually, Nigeria is making the right turn in its march to transparent elections. It is the view of many that despite the faltering steps taken by Prof Jega’s INEC, with patience and encouragement, Nigeria’s democracy will take roots. Credit must also go to the Nigerian civilian population that are the force behind this new turn.
Okolo Ben Simon, PhD
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