The Big Test for President Jonathan

Introduction

At the onset of the Yar’Adua/Jonathan presidency in May 2007, the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, pledged to Nigerians and the international community that his government will reform the electoral process in the country, in order for more credible elections to be conducted. It will be recalled that the 2007 elections which threw up the duo was adjudged by both domestic and international observers as the worst election in Nigeria’s political history. The 2007 elections were characterized by massive vote rigging, ballot box snatching and violence. However, as a result of Yar’Adua’s untimely exit on May 5 2010, he could not see through his resolve. The lot to do that, therefore, fell on his erstwhile vice, now the incumbent, President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan.

The setting up of the Justice Mohammed Uwais Committee eventually paved way for a raft of reforms that is being witnessed in Nigeria’s Electoral Laws. As is usual in Nigeria, scepticism ruled the day especially in the early days of the Committee’s work. Many believed that the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) government is so insincere in its promise of instituting a credible electoral process in Nigeria. They point to the fact that the lawmakers, most of who benefited from the fraudulent elections, would not want the Electoral Reforms to see the light of the day. The initial delays associated with the acceptance of some of the core reform provisions seem to vindicate the stance of the sceptics. However, with the appointment of Prof. Attahiru Jega as the Chairman of the re-branded Independent National Election Commission (INEC), most Nigerians started buying into the sincerity of the government. This buy in is not unconnected with the view many have of Professor Jega. He is perceived as a very principled and courageous man who will not collude with the government party to truncate the will of the people. However, there were still doubts, mostly by the opposition parties of INEC’s ability to remain independent, especially since it is largely funded by the federal government.

Pass Mark for INEC?

The elections which were billed to start on Saturday April 2 2011 were to have been held over three weekends (April 2, 9, and 16). However, as a result of what INEC referred to as ‘logistical challenges’ it could not effectively start off on April 2; the vendors that were contracted by INEC for the printing of the election materials did not deliver on time. This eventually led to the cancellation/suspension of the elections which had already started in some voting centres. This action did not go down well with the populace, but Jega’s profuse apologies on Television, (the first of its kind by such highly placed government official) and the understanding of the public calmed the frayed nerves of Nigerians. It will be recalled that in 1993, the erstwhile military president, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) had publicly through the media cancelled the presidential elections even as the results already announced indicated that there was a clear winner of the polls. There were fears, therefore, that with the cancellation/suspension of the elections by Prof Jega, voter apathy, which the INEC, government, and a raft of Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) have been warring against would creep in once more. However, the resolve of the Nigerian electorates won over voter apathy.

At the conclusion of the rescheduled National Assembly (NASS) elections on Saturday April 9 2011 – note however that NASS elections were postponed in 15 Senatorial districts and 48 Federal constituencies to April 26 2011 – Nigerians and a host of international community especially the observers commended the improved nature of the polls. When viewed against the 2007 elections, the 2011 elections so far indicate that INEC has delivered. This has led to President Jonathan’s beating of his chest that he has delivered on the promise of a credible election he made to Nigerians. Not all would however agree to this assessment, especially at this stage. This is more so because reports of violence, ballot box snatching, voter intimidation, rigging and other forms of electoral fraud trail the just concluded NASS elections. For instance, the INEC Returning Officer in Anambra Central Senatorial District, Dr Alex Anene, alleged publicly that the agents of one of the candidates for the Senatorial positions vying under the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) tried to induce him through the offer of 10 Million Naira (about $65,000.00), a 4x4 vehicle, a duplex, and scholarship for his kids to declare the election results in their favour. Well meaning Nigerians and the international community have called on INEC to improve on its gains. There is no doubt that there is room for improvement. INEC also must move from the level of rhetoric, to making sure that those that violated electoral laws are prosecuted. That way, it would be sending signals to all that it is definitely different from the former INEC.

The April 16 Test

Flowing from the above, the general expectation is that the Apil 16 elections will be generally free, fair and transparent. However, there are fears by some that since the stakes of the April 16 elections are higher, the elections might not be as free and fair as the NASS elections. Secondly, the results from the NASS elections indicate that the ruling party has lost some ground in the legislative house and this; they will want to cover if it must retain power at the centre. Akin to the above is the renewed hope by the opposition parties that it can dislodge the ruling party from the presidency. This renewed hope is premised on the gains that the opposition parties have made so far. For instance, out of the 86 election results released for the Senate, the opposition parties have a total of 26 seats, with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) leading the camp with 13 votes. The PDP however, still maintains the lead with 60 seats in its favour. While many, especially in the north had expected a good showing for Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), it managed to get 6 out of the 84 declared seats.

With the renewed hope of the opposition that it can dislodge the incumbent president, there were reports of serious political horse-trading going on; at one level, the CPC is reported to have been in close talk with the ACN chieftains, to solicit for their support. Interestingly, with the current position of parties, ACN is ranked higher in terms of number of seats at the Senate and should be seen as the stronger party. However, in terms of the personality profile of their different presidential flag bearers, CPC’s Buhari is ranked higher than ACN’s Mallam Nuhu Ribadu; little wonder then reports from many quarters were awash with the news that Ribadu would step down for Buhari in a possible CPC/ACN merger. As at the time of writing however, the media reported that the talks failed, and the ACN through the media communicated to its supporters that it was not in any kind of alliance with the CPC. Were the merger/support for CPC’s Buhari to take place, one expects that the ACN controlled Senatorial districts will vote for the CPC. However, the critical question is whether the combined forces of the CPC and ACN will be able to dislodge the PDP. No doubt, the ACN controlled southwest geopolitical zone has the population that can greatly influence the outcome of the elections (about 15 million registered voters); however, as pointed out by a colleague that the PDP is maintaining a close second in almost all the ACN controlled states, and hence, should be able to acquit itself favourably in the presidential elections.

Going by the total number of Senatorial seats already won by the PDP – 60 (at the time of writing), one can project that out of the remaining senatorial seats to be contested for, the PDP would likely win about 9 seats. It is expected, therefore, that the PDP will continue to dominate the Senate comfortably, even if it is not with a wide margin. Furthermore, the voting trend witnessed in the just concluded NASS elections suggests that the PDP has a much better national outlook and spread than the two main contending oppositions. For instance, the strength of the ACN is majorly in the southwest though it is making inroads in other non western states, while the CPC is mainly situated in the north and largely anchored around the person of Buhari.

The question that many have at the back of their minds is the extent to which religion and ethnicity will play a role in the determinant of who becomes the next president. It would be recalled that some northern elements in the PDP had earlier argued that Jonathan does not have the moral right to contest for the presidency, at least under PDP, because the PDP had earlier zoned the presidency to the north. Their argument was that Jonathan was serving out the remainder of the northern tenure held by late President Yar’Adua, and that the north would want to present a candidate for the second term elections – 2011. Jonathan however did not buy the argument and went on to mobilize and eventually clinch the PDP ticket. In order to placate the north, Jonathan chose Arc Namadi Sambo, the former governor of Kaduna state as his Vice President and eventual running mate. Sambo, who is from the northwest, is also a Moslem. With that master stroke, Jonathan was able to neutralise the fear of marginalisation of the northerners/Muslims, or so it seemed. The CPC’s presidential candidate is a Moslem from northwest, and his running mate is a Christian from the southwest, while the ACN presidential candidate is a Moslem from northeast, and his running mate is a Moslem from southwest. In fact, the influence of religion and ethnicity in the polity of Nigeria is so pronounced that the ACN candidate had to explain why he chose a fellow Moslem as his running mate. Notwithstanding the above, the elections will not be won along ethnic/religious lines. This is not to dismiss the overwhelming influence of ethnicity/religion in Nigeria’s geopolitical affairs. In fact, many are pointing to the regional nature of the power base of the CPC – northwest and the ACN – southwest to suggest that ethnic alliances were factors in the last NASS elections.

So, if religion and ethnicity are not key determinants, what will? Do political party ideologies play any significant role in determining who wins elections in Nigeria? Nigerians are quick to dismiss this as they are of the view that the political parties are not ideologically based. They insist that the parties are all the same, just different set of actors. In fact, most electorates have not even heard of any Political Party promoting any set of ideology. However, one will argue that the Nigerian voter, especially the elite is very discerning these days. This is informed by the nature of the campaign mounted by the presidential candidates. No longer did candidates rely only on the traditional political rallies held in state capitals, but they made extensive use of the media and the various electronic and digital communication modes in existence. For instance, it was not unusual for potential voters to get series of sms’ during the course of the day from different parties, all wooing for the voters support. Furthermore, the use of social network sites, especially the Facebook was canvassed by many of the parties especially those purporting to support them. It is evident however that the PDP presidential candidate, President Jonathan has more Facebook presence as at least over 100 different support groups exist on his behalf. Notwithstanding this mammoth presence on the internet, it must be cautioned that most of those that maintain such internet support groups might not eventually participate in the actual voting exercise, though they could still have influenced some people to vote in favour of the candidate they support. Akin to the Facebook phenomena is the Diaspora factor. A lot of Diaspora organizations weighed in for this campaign; again, PDP’s Jonathan got a majority of the Diaspora’s support. Another trend witnessed in the campaign is the extensive use of the youth population. Unlike in the past where the youths were engaged as thugs, this time around, the presidential candidates to a greater extent engaged the youth constructively. This, it is also argued will influence the way the votes will go in the forthcoming presidential polls.

Conclusion

From the above facts and analysis, one is left with the only logical conclusion to suggest that President Goodluck Jonathan will come out tops at the April 16 presidential elections. What would a President Jonathan’s presidency portend for Nigeria and Africa? Will he continue to maintain a dovish approach to internal issues, especially as it affects his Niger Delta and the issue of resource control and environmental degradation? Or would he operate from a hawkish perspective? Would it be business as usual or will he bring the much needed transformation that the Nigerian populace yearns for? What about Nigeria’s role in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) – will Nigeria continue to play the role of big brother in its sphere of influence and continue with its avowed role in continental peace and security issues? These are issues of concern to both Nigerians and the International community as Nigeria prepares to elect its third civilian president in its current political dispensation since 1999.

Okolo Ben Simon, PhD